In Moscow, permits for the construction of new complexes with apartments smaller than 28 square meters have been stopped, causing concern in the real estate industry. Experts are now discussing whether a similar ban will be implemented in Novosibirsk. Alexander Astakhov, a real estate market expert, gives his opinion on the matter.
There are two conflicting public demands. One is for a quality urban environment, which is influenced by the population density. The other demand is driven by the desire to buy real estate. Currently, there is a regression to a normal level of apartment consumption in new buildings. The market has been overheated for the past few years due to excessive demand and preferential mortgages. This has created an unnatural level of consumption, with everyone rushing to buy apartments, whether they need them or not. If there is access to affordable money and loans, people will buy regardless. This situation was not resolved by the market, so administrative measures were taken to reduce this burden.
The proposed solution has both positive and negative aspects. On one hand, it reduces investments from regional private investors who buy this property without knowing what to do with it. On the other hand, it reduces the strain on infrastructure in new neighborhoods. There will be fewer apartments, and they will be larger, resulting in a slightly smaller population. Another factor is the increase in the comfort of housing, albeit administratively. Simply put, there will be no small apartments. However, this could lead to a decrease in housing affordability, as the entry price for buyers will increase even in terms of the down payment. This would reduce potential demand and, consequently, fewer buildings would be constructed. This means increased risks for developers, as it becomes more difficult to predict the future demand.
However, these consequences are unlikely to occur in the regions. The demand in Moscow and St. Petersburg is also driven by buyers from other regions, which is why administrative measures were taken there to limit developers and maintain the comfort of the urban environment and residential complexes without being filled with small apartments. The demand in Novosibirsk is also influenced by buyers from other regions, but to a lesser extent. Nevertheless, experts predict a new surge in the local real estate market.
